Monthly Report

Monthly Momentum Report: March 2026.

This is the first edition of the Monthly Momentum Report, a recurring data summary showing where market momentum built, shifted, and faded over the past month. All data comes from Banana Farmer's scoring engine, which tracks 9,287 assets every 15 minutes. Here's what March 2026 looked like from a momentum perspective.

Data period: March 1-15, 2026 (partial month, first edition). Full monthly reports begin April 2026.

Market Overview

The first half of March 2026 showed moderate momentum across US equities with pockets of strength in technology and healthcare. The S&P 500 gained roughly 1.8% through mid-March. Breadth was narrower than February: fewer stocks generated Ripe signals, but the signals that did fire had above-average five-day returns. Crypto momentum picked up notably, with 18% more Ripe signals than February's pace.

March 2026 Snapshot (Through March 15)

487

Ripe Signals

82%

5-Day Win Rate

+4.73%

Avg 5-Day Return

9,287

Assets Tracked

The 82% five-day win rate for March (through the 15th) is slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 80%. Average returns of +4.73% are also above the historical average of +4.51%. Both numbers are influenced by the relatively small sample (487 signals in half a month) and should be treated as preliminary until the full month's data is in.

Top Sectors by Signal Volume

Technology led signal generation in early March, continuing a trend from Q4 2025. Healthcare surged in the second week with multiple biotech catalysts (three FDA decisions and two clinical trial readouts). Energy was the quietest sector, generating 40% fewer signals than its trailing 3-month average, consistent with flat oil prices and limited catalysts.

Sector	Ripe Signals	5-Day Win Rate	vs Feb Pace
Technology	127	84%	+8%
Healthcare	94	79%	+22%
Consumer Discretionary	72	81%	+3%
Financials	58	86%	-2%
Crypto	47	76%	+18%
Energy	31	74%	-40%
Other	58	83%	+1%

The healthcare surge was catalyst-driven, not a broad sector rotation. Three specific FDA decisions in week 2 generated clusters of signals in related biotech names. Remove those three events, and healthcare was running at February's pace. This matters for traders: sector-level momentum can be misleading when it's driven by a handful of catalysts rather than broad participation.

Crypto's 18% pace increase is the more interesting trend because it's broad-based, not event-driven. Multiple altcoins are showing momentum building simultaneously, which historically precedes either a significant altcoin rally or a false start that fades. The 76% win rate on crypto signals is in line with historical averages for the asset class.

Badge Transition Data

Badge transitions reveal how quickly momentum is building and decaying across the market. In March, the Ripening-to-Ripe transition rate was 12.3%, meaning 12.3% of assets in a Ripening state crossed into Ripe during the half month. This is slightly above the trailing average of 11.1%, indicating momentum is accelerating, not stalling.

12.3%

Ripening to Ripe

Momentum accelerating. Above 11.1% trailing avg.

8.7%

Ripe to Overripe

Moves extending. In line with 8.9% trailing avg.

34.2%

Ripe to Cooling

Momentum fading. Below 37.8% trailing avg.

The Ripe-to-Cooling transition rate of 34.2% is below the trailing average of 37.8%. This means Ripe signals are holding their momentum longer than usual. In practical terms: assets that reach Ripe status in March are taking longer to fade, which is good for swing traders holding 3-5 day positions. This pattern is consistent with trending markets where momentum has follow-through.

The Ripe-to-Overripe rate of 8.7% is flat. That's notable because it means the market isn't producing significantly more “too late” signals than usual. In a frothy market, this number spikes as stocks blow through Ripe and quickly become extended. Flat Ripe-to-Overripe with above-average Ripening-to-Ripe is a healthy combination. It suggests new momentum is forming without the market getting ahead of itself.

Notable Signals This Month

Without naming specific tickers (this is a methodology report, not a stock pick list), here are the patterns that produced the strongest signals in early March.

Semiconductor earnings breakouts

Three mid-cap semiconductor companies reported above-consensus earnings in the first week of March. All three generated Ripe signals on the earnings day and continued higher for 5+ trading days. The average five-day return on these signals was +11.2%. Semiconductor momentum has been a recurring theme since Q3 2025, driven by AI infrastructure demand.

Biotech catalyst cluster

The FDA decisions in week 2 generated the highest single-day signal count of the month. Seven biotech stocks received Ripe badges on the same day. Win rate on these was 71% (5 out of 7 positive at five days), which is below the overall March average. Biotech signals from binary catalysts are inherently more volatile: the winners were +18% to +34%, and the two losers were -12% and -8%.

Crypto altcoin rotation

Multiple altcoins showed Ripening-to-Ripe transitions in the same 48-hour window during week 2. This clustered transition pattern historically signals either the beginning of an “alt season” (where altcoins outperform Bitcoin) or a coordinated pump that reverses. The scanner flagged these as Ripe signals; whether they represent the start of a trend or a short-term event will be clearer by the April report.

What the Data Suggests for April

These observations are based on data patterns, not predictions. Markets are unpredictable, and any of these trends could reverse without warning. Use this as context for your own research, not as a trading plan.

Technology momentum looks sustainable. The Ripening-to-Ripe transition rate in tech is running above average, and the signals that fire are producing above-average returns. This suggests the trend has follow-through, at least through the current earnings cycle. Watch for whether April's big-cap tech earnings (if any are scheduled) confirm or break the pattern.

Energy is quiet, which could set up a coiling pattern. Low signal volume in energy means the sector is compressing. Historically, sectors that go quiet for 4-6 weeks and then generate a Ripe signal produce above-average returns because the move has more potential energy behind it. If energy catalysts appear in April (OPEC meetings, earnings, inventory data), watch for that first Ripe signal.

The crypto altcoin rotation needs confirmation. The March cluster could be the start of a sustained altcoin rally or a one-week blip. The April report will show whether those altcoin signals maintained their Ripe status or quickly transitioned to Overripe and Cooling. If the badge transitions show sustained Ripe status through mid-April, the altcoin trend is real. If most have cooled, it was a false start.

Important Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The observations about sector momentum and badge transitions describe historical data patterns that may not continue. Market conditions can change rapidly and without warning.

Trading involves substantial risk of loss. See our full risk disclaimer.

Builder's Perspective

ABM

Aaron Browne-Moore

Founder, Banana Farmer

I'm starting this monthly report series because I want to show what the data actually looks like, not just the headline stats. The 80% win rate and +4.51% average return are useful numbers, but they don't tell you where the momentum is right now, which sectors are heating up, and what the badge transition rates suggest about market breadth.
This first edition covers a partial month (March 1-15). Starting in April, each report will cover the full calendar month. I'll keep the format consistent so you can compare trends month over month. If there's a specific data cut you'd want to see in future reports, let me know.

For the full signal history and performance methodology, see the 12,450 signals analysis. For how the scoring engine works, see the methodology page. For sector-specific momentum patterns, the crypto vs stock momentum piece has relevant context on the altcoin rotation mentioned above.

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about the monthly momentum report

What is a monthly momentum report?

A monthly momentum report is a data-driven summary of which market sectors, asset classes, and individual stocks showed the strongest momentum signals over the past month. It tracks badge transitions (how many assets moved from Ripening to Ripe, from Ripe to Overripe), sector-level signal distribution, and aggregate scoring trends. Think of it as a monthly check-up on where the market's energy is flowing.

How is this report generated?

The report is compiled from Banana Farmer's scoring database, which tracks 9,287 assets every 15 minutes during market hours. We aggregate the daily signal data into monthly trends: total Ripe signals generated, sector distribution, market cap breakdown, badge transition rates, and the top-performing signals from the period. All data comes from the same scoring engine described on the methodology page.

Can I use this report to make trading decisions?

The report provides context, not trade signals. It tells you which sectors are showing broad momentum and which are quiet. Use it to focus your scanning and research on sectors where momentum is building, not to buy individual stocks. A sector showing strong momentum in March doesn't guarantee it continues in April. But it's a useful starting point for where to look.

How often is this report published?

Monthly. Each report covers one calendar month and is published within the first week of the following month. March 2026 is the first report in this series. Future reports will follow the same structure so you can compare trends month over month. We'll also publish quarterly summary reports that aggregate three months of data for longer-term trend analysis.

What does "badge transition" mean?

A badge transition is when an asset's Ripeness Score crosses a threshold that changes its badge. Moving from Ripening to Ripe means momentum is accelerating, which is the signal most traders watch for. Moving from Ripe to Overripe means the move may be getting extended. The transition rate (how many assets changed badge state in a given period) indicates market breadth: a high transition rate means lots of stocks are moving, while a low rate suggests a narrow or quiet market.

About This Report